Measuring and managing ‘state fragility’: the production of statistics by the World Bank,Timor-Leste and the g7+

Indicators are currently being widely used in international policy making to substantiate analyses and justify decisions on the basis of their alleged scientific objectivity. This article analyses the role of indicators and statistics in the labelling and managing of ‘fragile states’, examining the powerful consequences of these classifications but also discussing the untraceable nature of numbers and the difficulties in attributing ownership of numerical claims and assigning responsibility for their many unforeseen impacts. Focusing on the education sector in Timor-Leste and on the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (cpia) programme, the article shows how accountability and ownership are negotiated within the context of the g7+ group of self-labelled ‘fragile states’, encouraging an examination of the power relations involved.     

Gender Discrimination in Microfinance? Some Evidence from Uganda

Abstract

Microfinance literature has proved the existence of gender discriminatory practices against women in some specific contexts. Discrimination is often explored from the access side (loans approved or denied). Following Agier and Szafarz (2013), we deviate from this practice and use the variable loan size, considering up to four loans for each client. Drawing on data from a microfinance programme in Uganda, we find no evidence of gender discrimination against women clients, even though our results show that the loan size is influenced by personal characteristics and that women, in contrast to men, are rewarded according to their credit history.     

The use of linear dichroism in forensic fibre examinations — Part 6. Validation and practical aspects of MSP-PPL

This paper summarizes the results of previous work on the microscopic observation of linear dichroism found in dyed fibres (polyesters, polyamides, wool, silk, cotton, viscose, acrylics and acetates) and in pigmented fibres as well as the measurements on these fibre classes using microspectrophotometry with plane polarized light (MSP-PPL). The validation of this method is discussed and a practical tool is proposed for comparing fibre traces with control fibres. The limitations and strengths of this method are also revised.     

Experimental Study of Bite Mark Injuries by Digital Analysis

Abstract: This study was based on a morphometric analysis of bite marks starting from the quantitative definition of the anterior teeth by the geometric acquisition of the “injuries,” using bite marks impressed on pig skin and plastic. Each mark was photographed and acquired. A dedicated program automatically supplied the values of the shape factors and the areas of the pattern geometric figures. The values obtained for the homologous samples were compared to the heterologous values. Statistical comparison was made of the sets by linear regression, determining the correlation coefficient and the determination coefficient for each value. Results showed only 4.8% and 2% of overlap between homologous and heterologous values. This study was carried out in attempting to quantitatively define the anterior teeth of the human dentition and the procedure described and the results obtained support the advantage of morphometric studies and computer‐aided programs in this study of bite marks.     

The Dutch parliamentary election of May 1986

After a rather uneventful election campaign, the results of the May 1986 Dutch parliamentary election were a surprise to virtually all involved. Since the introduction of regular opinion polling in the 1960s, no election has taken place when the polls were ‘wrong’. However, in 1986 last minute shifts that were stronger than had ever occurred in the Netherlands produced results that differed significantly from the predictions based upon the polls published immediately prior to the election.     

Diffusing information

His many publications include Theories of Mass Communication; Understanding Mass Communication; Milestones in Mass Communication Research;and, with Otto N. Larsen, The Flow of Information.